Triggering Mass Adoption

Past Events & Quantum Implications

What will be the thing that triggers mass adoption of quantum technologies? An event, a milestone, a crime, a person? Will 2025, the International Year of Quantum Science & Technology be the year that quantum achieves (not necessarily mass adoption but) increased acceptance and adoption? For years, industry observers have been asking these questions.

Let’s take a look at some events from history that actually revolutionized technology to enter an era of mass adoption.

Image source: Brian Lenahan/Midjourney

The Electric Car Starter (1912)

Charles Kettering revolutionized the way we start cars with his invention of the first practical electric starter in 1912. Frustrated by the hazards and inconvenience of hand-cranking engines, Kettering devised a solution that eliminated the need for manual effort and reduced the risk of injury from heavy cranks. The hand crank used to start early automobiles could kick back under some circumstances. One of the instances that drove the search for innovation was the fatal accident incurred by the founder of Cartercar, Byron Carter who died from complications in Detroit's Belle Isle park. Cadillac’s head at the time, Henry Leland became determined to develop an electric self-starting device.When Leland’s team could not come up with a solution he looked to Kettering. Kettering’s groundbreaking innovation made driving safer, easier, and more accessible, particularly empowering women by enabling them to drive independently. His contribution not only streamlined vehicle operation but also set the stage for modern automobiles, demonstrating how one invention can reshape an entire industry.

The Graphical User Interface (1980s) – Personal Computing

Before graphical user interfaces (GUIs), computers were controlled using command-line interfaces, requiring users to memorize commands and codes. The development of the GUI by Xerox PARC in the 1970s, later popularized by Apple’s Macintosh and Microsoft’s Windows in the 1980s, allowed users to interact with computers visually through icons, windows, and menus. This simplification made computers accessible to non-technical users, revolutionizing personal computing and leading to widespread adoption.

The Transistor (1947) – Electronics and Computing

The invention of the transistor by Bell Labs in 1947 replaced bulky vacuum tubes in electronics. Transistors were smaller, more reliable, and consumed less power, enabling the miniaturization of electronic devices. This breakthrough laid the foundation for modern computing and consumer electronics, ultimately leading to the development of personal computers, smartphones, and a wide range of other digital technologies.

The World Wide Web (1991) – Internet Adoption

While the internet existed for decades before the 1990s, it was largely confined to government and academic institutions. The invention of the World Wide Web by Tim Berners-Lee in 1991, along with the introduction of user-friendly browsers like Netscape in 1994, transformed the internet into a globally accessible system. It made information easy to share and access, leading to the internet’s mass adoption by businesses and individuals alike.

Smartphone Touchscreens (2007) – Mobile Technology

The smartphone revolution began with Apple’s iPhone in 2007, which introduced capacitive touchscreens that responded to multiple points of contact. Prior to this, mobile phones often used physical keypads or styluses. The intuitive touch interface, combined with mobile internet capabilities, transformed phones into versatile personal devices for communication, entertainment, and productivity, leading to their mass adoption.

Lithium-Ion Batteries (1991) – Portable Electronics

The development of the lithium-ion battery by Sony in 1991 marked a major breakthrough in portable energy storage. These batteries were lightweight, rechargeable, and had a higher energy density than previous battery technologies, making them ideal for mobile phones, laptops, and eventually electric vehicles. Their efficiency and portability powered the mobile revolution and are now central to renewable energy storage and electric transportation.

Streaming Media (2000s) – Digital Entertainment

The mass adoption of broadband internet in the 2000s, along with advances in video compression technologies, enabled the rise of streaming services like Netflix, YouTube, and Spotify. Streaming eliminated the need for physical media like CDs and DVDs, offering instant access to content. This shift revolutionized the entertainment industry, changing how people consume music, movies, and television.

Cloud Computing (2000s) – IT and Software

Cloud computing, spearheaded by companies like Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google, changed the way businesses and individuals access software, data storage, and computing power. Rather than owning and maintaining physical hardware, users could now access these services remotely via the cloud, reducing costs and increasing scalability. This innovation transformed industries and led to the proliferation of mobile apps, remote work, and collaborative tools.

Implications for Quantum

The transition from hand-crank to electric car starters in the early 20th century and the ongoing shift from digital to quantum technology share a thematic intersection: both represent significant leaps in technological evolution that simplify processes, reduce barriers, and open new possibilities.

• The digital era, powered by binary computing, has automated and simplified complex tasks, leading to vast advancements in information processing, communication, and automation. Quantum computing, like the electric starter, promises a new level of efficiency and power by automating the solution of problems that are currently computationally expensive or infeasible, such as simulating complex molecules or optimizing large systems.

• While digital systems have made technology widely accessible, quantum technology offers the potential to make highly complex computations more approachable for scientists, researchers, and industries. For example, quantum computing could break through current barriers in medicine, cybersecurity, and materials science, enabling access to solutions that are currently out of reach with digital systems. In the same way that the electric starter opened up driving to new users, quantum technology could make previously unsolvable problems accessible.

• Digital technology has been evolving over decades, incrementally improving processing power, storage, and efficiency. Quantum technology, however, has the potential to be a revolutionary change. Where digital systems are built on binary logic (1s and 0s), quantum systems leverage quantum bits (qubits) that can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This could radically enhance the speed and scale at which complex problems are solved, leading to breakthroughs that digital computing alone could not achieve.

• Similarly, the transition from digital to quantum computing is set to redefine the limits of computation. Quantum technology challenges the very fundamentals of classical computing by introducing concepts like superposition and entanglement. This shift could usher in new industries and applications, much like how the electric starter paved the way for modern automotive advancements and greater societal impact.

• Quantum computing holds the potential to empower various industries by removing barriers to solving large-scale problems. Fields like drug discovery, cryptography, and artificial intelligence could be transformed, offering solutions to some of humanity's most pressing challenges. This empowerment through quantum innovation could be as transformative as Kettering’s invention was for early motorists.

In essence, all of these transitions represent fundamental shifts in their respective fields towards mass adoption. The electric car starter automated a physically demanding task, transforming an industry and empowering new users. Quantum computing, in a similar way, promises to automate and vastly accelerate computational tasks that digital technology cannot, potentially redefining entire industries and the way we approach complex problem-solving. Yet the question remains - what will trigger its’ mass adoption?

Brian Lenahan is founder and chair of the Quantum Strategy Institute, author of seven Amazon published books on quantum technologies and artificial intelligence. Brian’s focus on the practical side of technology ensures you will get the guidance and inspiration you need to gain value from quantum now and into the future. Brian does not purport to be an expert in each field or subfield for which he provides science communication.

Brian’s books are available on Amazon. Quantum Strategy for Business course is available on the QURECA platform.

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